VanEck Says Bitcoin’s Halving Playbook Is Fading as Liquidity and ETFs Set the Tone

VanEck’s latest market note argues Bitcoin has slipped out of its familiar four-year cadence. A prolonged bull phase has muddied halving-based signals, and the firm leans toward a cautious stance for crypto over the next three to six months. At the time of the note, Bitcoin traded near $92,000—up roughly 1.8% on the day but down about 1.9% week over week, per CoinGecko.

What’s changed isn’t price alone—it’s the driver. Institutional demand, spot ETF mechanics, and broad liquidity now appear to steer Bitcoin more than the protocol’s issuance schedule. SynFutures’ Rachel Lin put it plainly: the neat, clockwork cycle many traders relied on no longer describes the market; ETFs and macro flows carry more weight than the halving narrative. Bitget’s Gracy Chen added that investors are tilting toward spot and derivatives as part of holistic portfolio construction rather than trying to pick cyclical tops and bottoms.

VanEck is not monolithic in its view. While the house tone is guarded on crypto in the immediate term, head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel and portfolio manager David Schassler reportedly see the current setup more constructively, underscoring an internal debate that mirrors the market’s split psyche.

Interestingly, VanEck sounds more decisive outside crypto. The firm sees a cleaner runway in traditional risk assets, citing unusual clarity on fiscal posture, monetary trajectory, and secular themes. AI-related equities, after a pullback, look more attractive now than they did at October’s highs. Gold, meanwhile, is framed as a reasserting “global currency” supported by central bank accumulation. Although technically stretched, VanEck considers dips a chance to add. Gold hovered near $4,615—close to record levels—as this view was published. Lin characterizes gold’s role as stability and capital preservation rather than outsized upside, and Chen agrees it works as a portfolio stabilizer, with returns likely favoring investors who manage sizing dynamically. On prediction market Myriad, users assign an 82% probability that gold hits $5,000 before Ethereum, up from 68% a week earlier.

The political backdrop complicates the calculus. A DOJ lawsuit against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell questions the boundaries around central bank independence—a scenario that, if it escalates, could push capital toward non-sovereign stores of value. Lin suggests that a credible challenge to Fed autonomy would accelerate diversification into assets like Bitcoin and gold, reinforcing their monetary-hedge status.

The deeper takeaway isn’t about a specific price target; it’s about frameworks. If the halving no longer sets the tempo, then liquidity and institutional plumbing become the core variables. That means tracking ETF creation/redemption flows, derivatives term structure, and balance-sheet dynamics may matter as much as hashrate and issuance. As allocators normalize Bitcoin inside multi-asset portfolios, the asset can behave more like a high-beta liquidity proxy—responsive to policy shifts, funding conditions, and volatility supply from systematic managers. This institutionalization doesn’t kill crypto-native reflexivity; it recasts it. A steady ETF bid can dampen drawdowns, but it can also compress time between regime shifts when macro conditions change.

There’s an ethical layer to watch as well: if political pressure blurs monetary governance, investor preference for rules-based or non-sovereign assets often rises. That doesn’t guarantee persistent decoupling; it does argue for considering governance risk alongside valuation and momentum.

VanEck’s split view captures the moment: a constructive structural bid for Bitcoin, but messier short-term signals; clearer conviction on gold and AI than on the broader crypto complex. For practitioners, the playbook adapts. Screen for liquidity, monitor ETF flow, and stay nimble into the three-to-six-month window VanEck highlights. The halving still matters, but it’s no longer the main character.