Standard Chartered Halves 2025 Bitcoin Target to $100K as ETF Demand Cools

Standard Chartered just reset expectations for Bitcoin’s next leg. The bank now projects $100,000 by end-2025—down from $200,000—and pushes its $500,000 long-term target out to 2030 instead of 2028. The cut arrives after a softer fourth quarter and a market stuck in neutral: Bitcoin trades near $90,600, off 1.3% in the past day, with few fresh catalysts.

The core of the call is flow fragility. Geoffrey Kendrick argues that the corporate treasury bid—think MicroStrategy-style balance sheet accumulation—has largely exhausted itself. With that “second leg” fading, he frames future upside as increasingly dependent on one engine: spot ETF buying. The timing is awkward. Quarterly ETF inflows have slowed to roughly 50,000 BTC, the weakest pace since U.S. spot funds launched. In late 2024, combined demand from ETFs and digital asset treasuries ran closer to 450,000 BTC per quarter. When a market transitions from multi-sourced demand to a single dominant conduit, reflexivity tends to intensify: flows drive price, price drives sentiment, and distribution bottlenecks matter.

That puts the spotlight on the ETF channel’s true adoption curve. Advisor penetration has often lagged retail hype, and model portfolio rotations take quarters, not weeks. Issuer marketing budgets, share-lending policies, and secondary-market liquidity can amplify or dampen creations. If creations remain tepid, the “ETF-only” architecture can struggle to absorb even modest miner and exchange sell pressure. Conversely, a modest pickup in net creations can reprice the tape quickly because so much supply sits in long-term hands.

Macro complicates the picture. The bank notes growing political pressure on the Federal Reserve, which can ricochet through risk assets. Markets lean toward a quarter-point cut in tomorrow’s decision, but next year’s path hinges on the Chair’s guidance. A potential appointment of Kevin Hassett to the FOMC could tilt policy easier; in that scenario, investors often rotate toward “hard” assets like Bitcoin as a hedge. Prediction market Myriad shows a clear majority pricing in Hassett as Fed Chair before March 2026, and assigns just a 6% probability of a new “crypto winter” by end-February 2026—aligning with Kendrick’s view that traditional halving-cycle winters may be behind us.

Price action reflects the stasis. Bitcoin has probed the $90,000 area several times over the past two weeks, with near-term direction likely dictated by Wednesday’s FOMC tone. Without a reacceleration in ETF net inflows or a fresh balance-sheet buyer cohort, rallies can fade as quickly as they form.

My take: the thesis isn’t that demand disappears, it’s that the demand mix narrows. That concentration elevates execution risk. Watch three things: sustained net creations across the largest ETFs (not one-off prints), quarter-over-quarter advisor allocations in model portfolios, and the gap between ETF share premiums/discounts and spot—an early tell on primary-market flow. If those improve, $100,000 in 2025 looks conservative; if they don’t, ranges persist and timelines stretch, making the bank’s 2030 $500,000 marker more path-dependent than it appears. For now, the market is signaling patience, not capitulation.