Standard Chartered Says Crypto Likely Bottomed as Bitcoin Reclaims $64K; Oil and ETF Flows Are the Tell

Bitcoin’s slide to nearly $59,000 appears to have marked the cycle’s coldest point, according to Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick, who now argues the market has likely found its floor. The call comes as BTC trades back above $64,000—up about 5% week-over-week per CoinGecko—despite a modest dip in total crypto market cap to $2.277 trillion from $2.29 trillion.

Here’s the hinge: oil. The path from geopolitics to crypto runs through energy to rates. Elevated oil has kept inflation sticky, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and making risk-free paper competitive against crypto. If crude backs off, that yield pressure eases, the discount rate falls, and duration-sensitive assets—including Bitcoin—regain oxygen. Friday’s 1.5% drop in West Texas Intermediate to $86 per barrel (Trading Economics) nudges in that direction. On Myriad, a prediction market, traders leaned toward WTI hitting $55 before $120—an implicit bet on cooling energy.

Kendrick points to potential catalysts that could accelerate this rotation: signs of a U.S.-Iran peace deal ahead of next week’s G7 summit—something President Trump suggested could materialize this weekend, per AP—and liquidity dynamics around SpaceX’s historic $1.75 trillion IPO. In practice, those two forces can pull in the same direction: a fading oil risk premium and a re-allocation of risk capital once the IPO subscription scramble passes.

The positioning data line up with that narrative. Since mid-May, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $5 billion in net outflows (CoinGlass), among the heaviest since launch. Some of that selling likely wasn’t a macro indictment on Bitcoin, but a tactical cash-raising exercise to chase SpaceX allocation—classic short-term liquidity triage. If that’s right, you’d expect ETF outflows to slow, then flip, once the IPO catalyst clears and oil cooperates.

Context matters for why this “low is in” call resonates now. Bitcoin’s dip to ~ $59,000 represented a 53% drawdown from its October all-time high near $126,000—deep enough to flush weak hands without breaking long-term structure, and broadly consistent with prior cycle corrections. Standard Chartered reiterated its constructive stance earlier this year with a $100,000 BTC target in February; calling the bottom now leans into that existing framework rather than chasing price.

What would validate the thesis near-term? Kendrick highlights three simple, testable confirms: - Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs by Friday - Continued declines in oil prices - A Monday update from Strategy—the Bitcoin-buying firm—indicating it added to holdings

Those checkpoints are less about theatrics and more about microstructure. ETF tape is the cleanest look-through into U.S. retail and advisory demand. Oil is the transmission mechanism for rates. A “Strategy” add telegraphs corporate treasury conviction, which often crowds in followers.

Investors don’t need a hero trade here; they need the right dashboard. If oil softens, yields breathe, ETF flows turn, and the SpaceX cash drain abates, then “winter” fading won’t require a grand narrative push—it will just happen in the plumbing. Until then, price can chop around $64,000 without violating the view that the low is behind us.