Standard Chartered tips 2026 as Ethereum’s breakout year, sees ETH outpacing Bitcoin on RWA momentum

Standard Chartered is positioning 2026 as a pivotal year for Ethereum, arguing ETH could outperform Bitcoin on the back of network effects amplified by real‑world asset adoption. The call isn’t about hype; it’s a bet that utility-driven demand for blockspace will matter more as institutional onchain activity scales.

The one thing to watch is real‑world assets (RWAs). If tokenized treasuries, invoices, funds, and settlement rails continue migrating to Ethereum and its rollups, the network’s composability becomes a powerful flywheel. RWAs plug into stablecoins, lending markets, and payments in a way that compounds liquidity—every new asset can be immediately rehypothecated, collateralized, and settled across a shared execution environment. That is the network effect the bank is underwriting.

How that could translate to ETH outperformance: - More RWA activity means more transactions and data posted to L1 from rollups, which supports fee revenue and, by extension, ETH burn. A durable base of non-speculative demand can stabilize fee markets through cycles. - Institutions building RWA rails often need canonical settlement and interoperability with the largest stablecoin and liquidity pools. Ethereum still commands that center of gravity, and rollups settle their security back to ETH. - As RWAs deepen, ETH’s role as productive collateral could strengthen. Treasury‑like yields onchain create cleaner basis trades and structured credit, where ETH remains the default margin asset when counterparties seek programmatic, liquid collateral. - Narrative matters. After Bitcoin leadership phases, investors often rotate into assets with credible growth stories. A visible pipeline of tokenized assets gives ETH a tangible catalyst versus being “tech beta.”

But there are real execution and capture risks. If permissioned subnets or alternative L1s host the bulk of RWA volume, Ethereum’s value capture could dilute. Fragmentation across rollups may sap some network effects unless shared sequencing and L2 interoperability mature. Compliance constraints might push RWAs into KYC enclaves that minimize interaction with open DeFi, limiting the spillover into fee burn and liquidity. And if stablecoin issuers or custodians extract most economics off-chain, ETH may see less upside than headline adoption suggests.

What I’m tracking into 2026: - RWA settlement share that touches Ethereum L1/L2 versus closed systems or other chains. - Gas paid by permissioned apps and rollup data availability fees flowing to L1. - Onchain treasury and money‑market depth relative to centralized alternatives. - ETH’s share as collateral in credit primitives supporting RWAs. - Consolidation of L2 standards that reduce fragmentation and improve composability. - Regulatory clarity that allows institutions to hold or use ETH within RWA workflows.

Standard Chartered’s thesis—ETH outperformance driven by network effects and growing real‑world asset adoption—can play out if Ethereum doesn’t just host RWAs but also captures their economic gravity. If the activity becomes sticky, measurable, and composable on Ethereum’s stack, 2026 can credibly skew in ETH’s favor.