Saylor Rejects BTC Sale Rumors as Strategy Ramps Purchases—But the Equity Premium Just Vanished

Michael Saylor isn’t flinching. After a week of on-chain chatter suggested Strategy was moving coins and possibly selling, the Executive Chairman said the opposite on CNBC—new Bitcoin buys are accelerating and fresh disclosures land Monday. He doubled down on X, calling the sale rumor false, and framed the recent dip under $100,000 as a base-forming move he’s “fairly comfortable” with.

The more interesting development isn’t the rumor—it’s the market’s verdict on Strategy’s equity premium. On Friday, the firm’s market cap sat near $59 billion while its Bitcoin holdings were valued around $62.3 billion. That puts the stock at roughly 0.95x multiple-to-NAV, flipping a long-standing premium into a discount. Strategy’s own site still shows an informal mNAV closer to 1.2x using a debt-adjusted method, but the tape matters: a negative spread makes the equity-as-fuel model far less efficient.

This matters because Strategy’s playbook has been consistent: issue common stock when the market assigns a premium over its BTC per-share value, and recycle that capital into more Bitcoin. When the premium compresses—or turns into a discount—new issuance risks being value-destructive for existing shareholders. That’s a psychological pivot point for a story stock built on reflexivity: confidence and premium reinforce buying; discounts and drawdowns test commitment and patience.

Saylor is signaling he’ll power through. He noted the firm is “always buying,” even if disclosures pause near quarter-end. He also pointed to “OG holders” taking profits around $100,000 as the likely source of recent selling pressure, not treasury liquidation. On-chain moves flagged by Arkham Analytics may reflect a custodial shift to Coinbase rather than distribution—still, in a world where coins are traceable, changing deposit patterns can trigger reflexive narratives.

Funding remains diversified. Beyond common stock, Strategy has leaned on convertible debt and preferred shares with board-declared dividends. The company has raised $8.2 billion via converts to date, and outstanding preferreds are currently valued around $7.6 billion. Management sized annual preferred dividends near $735 million, but emphasized there’s no credit-default risk because the board controls declarations—an important legal point that reduces hard obligations, even if deferrals would complicate future issuance.

Bear cases focus on solvency under stress and the durability of that dividend burden. Saylor countered that the balance sheet is overcollateralized and would remain so even if Bitcoin fell 80%. TD Cowen’s Lance Vitanza echoed that selling BTC would be a last resort; convertible maturities don’t arrive until 2028, making forced dispositions “highly unlikely” near-term. He added the firm isn’t legally required to pay preferred dividends each period, though skipping payments would impair access to that channel—an obvious tradeoff management understands.

Near-term price action isn’t helping sentiment. MSTR has slid 32% over the past month, trading around $204, as Bitcoin gave back a chunk of this year’s gains. BTC changed hands near $96,365 after a six-month low below $95,000 earlier Friday, according to market data. Meanwhile, a prediction market put the probability of Strategy selling Bitcoin in 2025 at about 8% on Friday, up from as high as 14% intraday—low odds, but a reminder that narratives can move faster than fundamentals.

One lever is still active: new capital. Last week, Strategy said Euro-denominated preferred shares in Luxembourg are expected to raise about $715 million. If the equity premium remains muted, the mix likely tilts more toward converts and preferreds, with careful pacing around dividend optics and cost of capital. If the premium reappears, the classic flywheel returns.

The takeaway isn’t whether Strategy sold—Saylor says they didn’t and are buying more—but whether the market will re-award the premium that financed this balance-sheet strategy for years. Discounts challenge reflexive stories. If Saylor can keep the orange machine running through a discount, it strengthens the narrative. If not, the model evolves from momentum-led to liability-managed—and that’s a different game.