Ethereum Pectra Upgrade Set for May 7 + SEC Acknowledges Fidelity’s Solana ETF
JPMorgan Warns of 60% Global Recession Risk Amid Trump’s Tariffs, as Bitcoin Startup Funding Soars, Ethereum Prepares for Major Upgrade, and US Government Pushes Back Against CBDC Development.

Because Bitcoin
April 4, 2025
JPMorgan Warns of 60% Global Recession Risk if Trump’s Tariffs Persist
JPMorgan has raised its global recession risk forecast to 60%, up from 40%, citing the economic strain of the Trump administration’s tariffs on U.S. trading partners. Chief Economist Bruce Kasman warned that the tariffs—amounting to a cumulative 22% increase—represent the largest tax hike on U.S. households and businesses since 1968.
The bank cautioned that the impact of these tariffs could be amplified by retaliation from trade partners, supply chain disruptions, and weakened market sentiment. While the U.S. and global economies are currently on stable footing, JPMorgan noted that restrictive trade policies and reduced immigration could lead to lasting supply constraints and slower long-term growth.
The outlook remains uncertain as policy developments continue to unfold, but JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that if the tariffs remain in place, the likelihood of a recession in 2025 rises significantly.

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Bitcoin Startup Funding Surges as Pre-Seed Deals Jump 50% in 2024
Venture investment in bitcoin-focused startups surged in 2024, with pre-seed transactions rising 50%, according to a report from Trammell Venture Partners. Despite broader caution in tech funding, the number of early-stage bitcoin-native deals grew 767% from 2021 to 2024, signaling a sustained long-term trend.
Bitcoin’s price more than doubled last year, fueled by SEC-approved spot ETFs and renewed market optimism after Donald Trump’s election victory, which was heavily backed by crypto interests. While total capital raised across all rounds declined 22% in 2024, venture capitalists remain bullish on bitcoin’s future, with forecasts suggesting crypto VC funding could surpass $18 billion in 2025.
SEC Acknowledges Fidelity’s Solana ETF Application Amid Shifting Crypto Regulatory Landscape
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged Fidelity’s application for a spot Solana ETF, set to trade on the Cboe BZX Exchange. The ETF would hold physical SOL tokens and stake some through trusted providers. Solana’s $2 billion average daily trading volume and $90 billion fully diluted market cap are cited as factors that help prevent market manipulation. This move expands Fidelity’s digital asset ETF offerings, following its spot Ethereum ETF filing in March. The SEC’s shift in its approach to crypto regulation, including a new SEC chair nominee, Paul Atkins, is expected to pave the way for further approval of crypto ETFs, including Fidelity’s Solana fund.
House Committee Advances Bill to Block Federal CBDC Development
The US House Financial Services Committee has advanced the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, which aims to prevent federal banks from issuing or using central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The bill passed with a 27-22 vote and now moves to the full House for consideration.
Sponsored by Representative Tom Emmer, the bill has gained support from various banking and conservative groups. Emmer cited former President Trump’s executive order banning CBDCs as a foundation for the legislation. A companion bill was introduced in the Senate by Ted Cruz, signaling a coordinated Republican effort to block CBDC development over financial privacy concerns. However, the bill’s chances of passing both chambers remain uncertain.

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Ethereum Developers Set May 7 for Pectra Upgrade, Bringing Major Network Changes
Ethereum developers have set May 7 as the target date for the Pectra upgrade, marking the blockchain’s most significant changes since March 2024. The upgrade includes 11 Ethereum improvement proposals (EIPs), aimed at improving user experience, efficiency, and staking. Notable changes include adding smart contract capabilities to wallets and increasing the staking limit from 32 to 2,048 ETH with EIP-7251. Pectra’s successful test on the Hoodi testnet paves the way for its deployment, following previous delays due to bugs in earlier tests.
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