Bitcoin Slips Under $100K Again as Bond Jitters Roil Risk, ETF Inflows Hint at Rotation

Bitcoin pushed back below $100,000 Friday morning for the second time this week, sliding 2.7% over 24 hours and roughly 9% week-over-week. The earlier break on Tuesday marked the first sub-$100K print since May; a midweek rebound faded into fresh selling.

The key signal isn’t the tick below six figures—it’s the flow. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew approximately $239 million of net inflows on Thursday, snapping a six-session run of red that had shaped up as one of the heaviest redemption stretches since the products launched in January. That turn suggests investors are rotating exposure rather than capitulating, with capital staying in the asset class even as price pressure forces a positioning reset.

Why the wobble now? Rates volatility. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid flagged a sharp Treasury swing: stronger ADP employment and firm ISM services figures pushed yields higher midweek, only for a weak U.S. job cuts print to reverse the move the next day. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 7.6 basis points—its largest daily drop since the U.S.-China trade flare-up on October 10—while equities sold off, with the S&P 500 down 1.12% and the Nasdaq off 1.90%. That kind of macro whiplash often bleeds into crypto via risk-parity de-risking, CTA triggers, and tighter liquidity in perps.

Framed correctly, the dominant pattern looks like a mid-cycle shakeout driven by leverage coming out of the system, not a structural break. Bitunix’s Dean Chen reads the ETF tape the same way: inflows amid price weakness imply redistribution across wrappers and venues, not an exit. That aligns with how this market behaves when funding cools, basis compresses, and forced sellers meet patient spot demand.

Policy is a quiet tailwind. With the Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening on December 1 and having delivered rate cuts in September and October, the liquidity backdrop is gradually turning more supportive. The effect rarely materializes in a straight line, but it tends to cushion downside once the immediate deleveraging phase passes.

Forward expectations remain split but leaning constructive. On prediction market Myriad, traders assign a 55.5% probability that Bitcoin’s next significant move is toward $115,000 rather than $85,000. That skew captures the current regime: macro noise can push price below round-number levels, while on-chain and ETF demand intermittently step in to absorb supply.

What matters from here is interaction between three variables: bond-market volatility, ETF primary-market activity (creations/redemptions via APs), and derivatives positioning. If yields settle and ETF creations persist, this looks like rotation during a mid-cycle reset. If rates turbulence worsens and redemptions re-accelerate, the shakeout can extend. For now, flows argue the former, even if the path stays choppy.