Bitcoin Rebounds to Two-Week High as Bernstein Reaffirms $150K Year-End Target

Bitcoin pushed to a two-week peak on Monday, tapping $63,900 intraday and changing hands around $63,836. The move leaves BTC up roughly 1.7% over 24 hours and more than 6% week-over-week—even as the asset remains nearly 50% below the all-time high set last October and has surrendered the gains that followed President Donald Trump’s reelection over the last eight months.

Against that backdrop, Bernstein is not backing off its “ambitious” $150,000 per BTC forecast into year-end 2026. The team concedes the drawdown has been uncomfortable, yet argues the correction has signaled a maturing market structure and says they stay constructive over the long arc of the cycle. They also emphasize what matters most now: flows. Their base case assumes the Bitcoin cycle eventually turns, and they are watching on-chain and fund flows for confirmation that demand is rebuilding.

The hinge is liquidity, not headlines. A 135% climb from current levels to reach $150,000 cannot rely solely on reflexive enthusiasm; it likely needs a steady expansion in credible, price-insensitive buyers and a reduction in forced sellers. Two variables stand out in Bernstein’s framework.

First, policy. The probability of the Clarity Act passing by year-end sits near 50% on Polymarket, a coin-flip that could shape the runway for institutional capital. Should that legislation advance, Bernstein expects broader market liquidity and deeper institutional adoption—both for crypto-native assets and for tokenized real-world assets riding on public blockchains. In practice, that would translate into fewer compliance bottlenecks, cleaner mandates for allocators, and a higher tolerance for risk among boards and investment committees that often need statutory cover before moving size. The psychological spillover can be meaningful: when rules of engagement feel legible, allocators tend to re-rate uncertainty premiums and commit capital with longer holding periods.

Second, supply discipline from large balance-sheet holders. Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-heavy company, Strategy—the largest publicly traded holder of BTC—sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin last week to fund dividends, increasing its U.S. dollar reserve to more than $2.55 billion. Bernstein notes Strategy maintains roughly 17 months of coverage for dividend and interest outlays, with any dip below 12 months requiring board sign-off. That structure makes near-term, price-driven liquidation less likely and supports the view that Strategy remains a net buyer on balance rather than a source of forced supply. Markets often overreact to isolated sales; coverage cushions and governance thresholds matter more to the medium-term supply picture.

If the liquidity puzzle comes together—policy clarity that unlocks institutional demand, consistent net inflows, and fewer involuntary sellers—the path to higher prices becomes less about hope and more about market plumbing. Derivatives funding, basis, and spot-market depth then do the quiet work of transmitting demand into trend. Without those pillars, price targets tend to be sentiment anchors rather than destinations.

For now, Bitcoin’s two-week high is a reminder that the tape can stabilize even while macro narratives remain unresolved. Bernstein’s $150,000 aim is still a stretch by definition, but it is at least moored to catalysts that could, over time, change the marginal buyer—and that’s what usually moves this market.