Bitcoin Holds $76K After Fed’s 25 bps Hike as Zcash Pops on VC Endorsement

Bitcoin’s message to the Fed: we heard you already. After a unanimous 12-0 vote to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—the first increase since July 2023 and a move with a 93% implied probability on CME’s FedWatch—BTC briefly tagged $76,499 before settling near $76,300. Prices were essentially unchanged as the broader digital asset market held above $2.6 trillion, with total crypto capitalization at $2.63 trillion and sentiment sliding to a neutral 50 on the Fear & Greed Index, down from “extreme greed” three weeks ago.

The signal that matters is expectations. When a hike is pre-telegraphed and the path forward looks constrained, crypto’s volatility compresses. Contrast that with traditional markets’ initial wobble: the Dow fell about 1.2% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.4%-0.5% Wednesday. Earlier in the week, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5%—a high not seen since 2007—while oil pushed above $100 per barrel amid the conflict between Israel and Iran. That combination pulls capital toward cash and Treasurys and away from non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold, and a hawkish posture often lifts the dollar—both headwinds for risk.

By Thursday morning, those pressures eased at the margin. Long-end U.S. yields dipped roughly two basis points, equity futures turned higher, and oil backed off the highs after Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments stressed a steady hand on inflation, reducing fears of a disorderly spike in yields. That moderation helped explain crypto’s calm tape. Positioned traders appeared prepared: about $373 million in crypto liquidations hit over 24 hours, skewed toward shorts as prices drifted higher into the decision, suggesting the market had leaned into a mild relief bid rather than a shock.

One corner of the market ignored the macro and traded on narrative. Zcash climbed as much as 23% toward $1,425—a multi-year high—after Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang disclosed that his firm holds ZEC and has funded the Zcash Open Development Lab. Huang cast Zcash as a privacy-centric counterpart to Bitcoin and argued the project’s inflation-financed developer fund merits continued support as AI-driven cyber risks and potential advances in quantum computing evolve. It follows a May surge of 37% when Multicoin Capital’s Tushar Jain revealed a position built since February, describing ZEC as his preferred vehicle for a privacy thesis tied to wealth-seizure risk. The result: ZEC has rallied roughly 160% over the past month versus Bitcoin’s 18.2% and is up nearly 3000% year-on-year, making it the standout among the top 10 market-cap names this week.

Elsewhere, moves were restrained. BNB traded near $724 (up 2%), Solana held just above $100 (up 3.3%), and XRP changed hands around $1.29 (up 2% on the day but down more than 6% for the week). XRP and other major altcoins continue to feel the policy overhang after the Clarity Act failed a Senate cloture vote days ago. The bill would have legalized most crypto activity in the United States and delivered more immediate regulatory clarity to assets like Solana and XRP than to Bitcoin, which many regulators already treat distinctly.

The forward path from the Fed is the pivot point for crypto’s next leg. The central bank’s median projection places the federal funds rate at 4.1% by the end of 2026, implying room for one additional quarter-point move. With the next meeting slated for October 27-28, traders will anchor on whether growth, oil, and term premiums conspire to reprice the long end of the curve. If dollar strength and real yields grind higher, non-yielding assets face valuation pressure; if the Fed keeps term risk orderly, Bitcoin can continue to behave like macro “duration-lite,” absorbing shocks better than equities during well-telegraphed policy steps.

Zcash’s breakaway also underscores a recurring market psychology: when macro is mostly priced, capital hunts idiosyncratic catalysts. Privacy as a thesis has returned each time systemic-risk fears flare. The business reality is that funding mechanisms like Zcash’s developer allocation invite debate, but they also underwrite sustained roadmap execution in a hostile security environment. For investors, that trade-off is less about absolutist ideology and more about whether the incentive design can produce durable utility as threats evolve. In a market cooling from excess greed to neutrality, that nuance will separate fleeting pumps from assets that can hold their multiple.