Bitcoin’s drawdown echoes prior halvings as 21Shares outlines a base-case path back toward $100,000 by year-end

Bitcoin’s current setup is straightforward: price sits roughly 50% beneath the October 2025 peak at $126,000, while 21Shares frames a base-case climb back toward $100,000 before year-end. The claim that post‑halving behavior “looks familiar” matters less as a slogan and more as a guide to positioning: in these windows, the market often overreacts to miner stress and fading momentum before re-rating when liquidity and risk budgets return.

Here’s the one thing to focus on: the handoff from supply shock to liquidity regime. Halvings reduce new issuance, but the immediate market impact is usually dominated by miners adjusting to tighter margins and by traders normalizing exuberant expectations. That mix tends to amplify drawdowns and compress volatility in the middle of the cycle. Once forced sellers fade and steady demand absorbs thinner issuance, price has room to mean‑revert—this is where a $100,000 base case becomes plausible rather than heroic.

Why the pattern tends to rhyme: - Miner economics reset first. Revenue per terahash drops, weaker operators hedge more aggressively or liquidate inventory, and hashrate growth stalls or consolidates. That supply is finite and front‑loaded. - Positioning normalizes. Perpetual funding, basis spreads, and options skews cool off as leveraged longs get washed out. With less reflexive froth, incremental spot demand has greater price impact. - Narrative discipline returns. After peaks, investors stop paying for optionality and start rewarding cash‑flow resilience (miners), low‑beta exposure (BTC vs. long‑tail tokens), and vehicles that offer simple access.

For a recovery path to $100,000, the market doesn’t need perfection; it needs continuity: - Stable to modestly positive spot demand—whether via passive vehicles, corporate treasuries, or high‑net‑worth channels—consistently absorbs reduced issuance and residual miner sell pressure. - Derivatives term structure remains orderly. When carry is positive but not euphoric, hedgers can monetize without inviting the kind of basis blow‑off that precedes reversals. - On‑chain behavior stays conservative. Coins held by patient cohorts continue to exhibit low spend propensity, signaling confidence without complacency.

The psychological anchor at $100,000 cuts both ways. It offers a clean target for allocators who want exposure but dislike chasing highs, yet it also invites premature profit‑taking as traders “sell the big round number.” Expect choppier order books near that level and plan entries/exits rather than reacting to headlines.

From a business lens, the interesting shift is operational discipline across the ecosystem. Miners that hedge power costs, ladder options, and stagger treasury sales can dampen post‑halving volatility. Intermediaries that keep margin frameworks tight reduce the likelihood of cascade liquidations. Neither practice is flashy, but both increase the odds that a base‑case grind higher holds.

Ethically, communication quality matters in this phase. Overpromising invites retail capitulation on the next dip. Framing $100,000 as a “base case” rather than a fait accompli sets healthier expectations and encourages process over prediction.

What could derail the trajectory is mostly path‑dependency: a sharp tightening in dollar liquidity, disorderly miner capitulation, or a derivatives build‑up that recreates the same fragility just as price approaches key resistance. None of these are guaranteed; they are simply the potholes on an otherwise drivable road.

So, does the post‑halving tape look familiar? Yes—in the ways that count. A deep but contained mid‑cycle drawdown, cooling leverage, miner recalibration, and patient holders setting the floor. If flows remain steady and forced sellers keep fading, a measured re‑rating into the $100,000 area by year‑end is a reasonable base path—not a promise, but a playbook.