Bitcoin’s Leverage Flush Eases: Can Price Reclaim $105K Before Momentum Fades?

Bitcoin just survived a hard reset. After a two-day slide that pushed BTC briefly under $100,000 for the first time since May, roughly $2 billion in crypto longs were liquidated, clearing a sizable chunk of leverage. The market has stabilized: total crypto capitalization bounced to $3.5 trillion, up about 3.5% in 24 hours per CoinGecko. Equities offered a tentative tailwind—S&P 500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.9% as AI names recovered—while a 31-day (and counting) U.S. government shutdown, the longest on record, keeps macro visibility murky.

The question isn’t whether a bounce happened; it’s whether the leverage purge created durable fuel. That’s the fulcrum. Washouts often improve forward returns by removing weak hands and reducing reflexive selling pressure. But structure matters: without trend strength and reclaimed levels, relief rallies can stall.

Here’s the state of play and the one thing to watch—structure after the flush:

- Momentum vs. trend. Bitcoin’s RSI sits near 38—close enough to “cheap” that dip buyers typically probe, but not an automatic buy. ADX at 20.33 signals weak trend; markets with anemic ADX tend to chop until a new impulse emerges.

- EMAs and credibility. The 50-day EMA remains above the 200-day (a golden cross), yet spot price trades beneath both—classic sign of a panic break. If BTC cannot quickly reclaim those averages, the 50-day will roll over and flirt with a future death cross. Traders don’t need the cross itself to act; they respond to the slope and distance from the EMAs. Reclaiming them restores trend credibility; failing to do so invites further mean reversion.

- Energy release. The Squeeze Momentum indicator fired short, confirming the breakdown vented compressed energy. That typically precedes consolidation before the next directional move, rather than an immediate V-shaped reversal.

- Flow context. Recent ETF outflows suggest spot demand hasn’t fully absorbed supply. Until that flips, sustained upside requires cleaner technical confirmation rather than hope.

- Crowd expectations. On Myriad, a crypto prediction market, participants currently assign about a 67% probability that BTC revisits $115,000 before sliding to $85,000. Useful sentiment check—but in the wake of liquidations, prediction markets can skew optimistic as traders anchor to prior highs.

Price map for execution:

- Immediate resistance: $105,000. A decisive daily close above with strong volume opens a path to $110,000.

- Strong resistance: $108,000–$109,000, where recent consolidation failed and supply reappeared.

- Immediate support: $102,000. Lose it, and the market likely tests $100,000.

- Major support: $100,000, a psychological level with heavy options strikes; a clean break risks a fast probe into the high-$90Ks.

Strategically, the cleanest pivot is simple: does BTC reclaim and hold $105,000 while ADX lifts toward 25 and the 50-day EMA flattens? If yes, momentum can extend and squeeze sidelined shorts. If not, the market probably backs up to build a sturdier base—many will watch the $90,000 region as a higher-probability accumulation zone after this leverage reset.

This doesn’t read like the start of a crypto winter; calling a multi-month regime shift here feels premature. Still, if cycle patterns rhyme, 2026 could turn colder. For now, it’s a trader’s tape: respect the levels, let trend strength confirm, and avoid paying up beneath declining EMAs.