Bitcoin Eyes Sub-$60K as Hedge Trade Fades, Says Galaxy’s Alex Thorn

Bitcoin’s drawdown has deepened and the psychology around the trade has shifted. After sliding roughly 38% from its October all-time high, BTC is trading near $77,873—off about 1.4% Tuesday and more than 15% over the past month. It briefly broke below $75,000 on Sunday, marking the lowest print since 2024. Galaxy’s Head of Firmwide Research, Alex Thorn, argues the path of least resistance still leans lower, with a credible setup to probe sub-$60,000.

What’s changed isn’t only price action; it’s the narrative regime. While gold and silver have rallied on debasement fears, Bitcoin hasn’t consistently traded alongside that theme. When the supposed macro hedge doesn’t capture incremental flows during a metals bid, it tells you generalist capital is treating BTC more like cyclical risk than a monetary hedge. That reframes positioning: ETF buyers anchor to cost basis and performance windows, not ideology. When those cohorts see red, redemptions and sidelined flows can create a slow bleed until a fresh catalyst appears.

Thorn highlights a few structural markers:

- Cost-basis gravity: He points to a historically “max” discount of about 10% versus ETF holder cost basis—now near $76,000. That zone can act as chop, but it rarely resolves higher without a driver. - Supply gap levels: A drift toward the bottom of the supply gap around $70,000 is plausible if momentum stays soft. - Classic anchors: Realized price near $56,000 and the 200-week moving average around $58,000 are the deeper magnets that traders watch—and sometimes collectively will into reality.

On-chain and trend history rhyme with that roadmap. Thorn notes that when Bitcoin has fallen at least 40% from a peak, it has typically extended to a 50% drawdown, with only one exception. He also flags a common pattern from the last three bull markets: once BTC lost its 50-day moving average—something that happened in November—it often slid toward the 200-week moving average. In this cycle, that’s roughly $58,000. From current levels, a move there implies another ~25% of downside.

The one constructive tell: long-term holder distribution is easing. In dollar terms, 2024 and 2025 saw heavier profit-taking by long-term holders than any prior period in Bitcoin’s history. That wave has abated, though some investors may still be waiting for higher prices before selling. An ebb in realized profits from patient cohorts often precedes base-building, even if spot price needs time— or another flush—to reset expectations.

How I’m framing it: the hedge narrative’s misfire matters because it influences who shows up to buy. If metals attract the debasement bid while BTC trades like a growth proxy, ETF flows and cost-basis anchoring can dominate price discovery. That pushes the market to respect technical and on-chain levels almost mechanically. In those regimes, realized price and the 200-week MA become less about “fair value” and more about communal reference points that shape risk management, margin usage, and hedging behavior. Until there’s a clear macro or micro catalyst—policy shift, liquidity impulse, or a crypto-native spark—price can meander lower through those levels, pausing at each pocket of resting demand.

For investors with longer horizons, Thorn argues that realized price and the 200-week MA have historically been attractive entry zones. Shorter-term, prediction markets lean cautious: users on Myriad assign a 66% probability that BTC tags $69,000 before reclaiming $100,000.

BTC doesn’t need a miracle to stabilize—just a narrative that earns flows. Absent that, watch the ETF cost-basis discount, $70,000 supply pocket, and the $58,000–$56,000 band for where conviction might finally return.