Bitcoin, Ether Sway on 4.6% U.S. Jobless Rate as Odds Tilt to BTC Reclaiming $100K

A messy macro tape returned to center stage after the government’s shutdown-induced backlog cleared and the latest jobs figures finally hit. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released combined October–November payrolls, showing the unemployment rate at 4.6%—the highest since 2021—and crypto reacted in kind: a quick drop, then a grind higher as traders recalibrated the path of rates and the dollar.

Bitcoin traded at $87,152 at publication, down 0.5% over 24 hours, per CoinGecko, after a sharp early-Monday slide to nearly $85,000 and a subsequent intraday recovery. Ethereum fell through $3,000 late Monday and hasn’t reclaimed it; ETH last changed hands around $2,935, off 3.5% on the day. Price action stayed choppy Tuesday morning as the delayed nonfarm payrolls data rippled across risk.

The labor report was unusual. After a 43-day U.S. government shutdown that ended on November 12, agencies bundled two months of releases. The BLS noted that the unemployment rate “at 4.6%, was little changed from September,” with gains in health care and construction while federal government employment continued to decline. Beneath the headline, November added 64,000 jobs, October shed 105,000, and both August and September were revised lower—signs of deceleration, but not collapse.

Here’s the pivot most crypto desks are watching: rate expectations. Lee Hardman, senior currency economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said the bank still anticipates several Federal Reserve cuts in 2026. He pointed to comments from New York Fed President John C. Williams, who highlighted easing housing inflation, the absence of broad supply bottlenecks, and moderating wage growth. Williams sees inflation dipping just under 2.5% next year, then converging toward the Fed’s 2.0% target in 2027. That glide path implies a softer U.S. dollar—often a tailwind for Bitcoin—as easier policy and improved global liquidity make dollar-denominated risk assets more palatable to international buyers.

This is where prediction markets come into play. On Myriad, a prediction platform owned by Dastan, traders assign a 69% probability that Bitcoin touches $100,000 before it revisits $69,000. If you strip out the noise, that skew reflects a few intertwined dynamics:

- Macro asymmetry: A labor market that cools without cracking gives the Fed room to ease, which typically weakens the dollar and supports non-yielding, globally traded assets like BTC. - Market psychology: Round figures act like magnets. The $100K threshold concentrates attention and optionality, often pulling flows on improving liquidity and risk appetite—even as downside anchors (e.g., $69K) remain in play. - Microstructure: After swift drawdowns, crypto frequently mean-reverts when macro uncertainty resolves, and implied vol compresses faster than spot, encouraging topside overwriters to rebalance.

None of this guarantees a straight line up. The October job loss, downward revisions, and ongoing federal-job attrition introduce revision risk to the macro narrative. If unemployment drifts higher faster than expected, the “good cuts” story can morph into “growth scare,” which is not always bullish for beta. Conversely, if inflation proves sticky, the dollar may firm and pressure crypto.

What matters next is the sequence: incoming labor prints, the durability of wage disinflation, and the dollar’s trend against a backdrop of anticipated 2026 easing. In that context, the market’s 69% lean toward $100K before $69K looks less like bravado and more like a rational bet on policy momentum meeting crypto’s well-known gravitational pull toward marquee levels.