Dip Buyers Return: Bitcoin ETFs Log $240M Inflows After $2B Drain, With $100K as the Pivot

A week of relentless redemptions finally gave way to green. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $239.9 million in net inflows on Thursday, breaking a six-session run that had stripped more than $2 billion from the complex. The bounce comes as selling pressure visibly cools on-chain and large holders add exposure into weakness—yet the $100,000 level remains the fulcrum for sentiment.

Issuer flow breadth turned positive: - BlackRock’s IBIT: +$112.4 million - Fidelity’s FBTC: +$61.6 million - Ark 21Shares’ ARKB: +$60.4 million

Ethereum products moved in tandem, posting $12.5 million in net inflows after nearly a week of exits. CoinGecko shows ETH near $2,235, down 4.5% on the day.

The context matters. Outflows accelerated last Friday at $470.7 million, extended to $488.4 million on Monday, eased to $191.6 million the next day, then surged to a record $566.4 million on Tuesday—when IBIT saw zero creations and FBTC shed $356.6 million. In price terms, Bitcoin sits around $100,257, off 2.8% over 24 hours and roughly 20% below last month’s $126,000 high.

What changed beneath the surface is supply. Long-term holders have been selling less, while wallets with 1,000+ BTC reportedly accumulated more than 10,000 BTC recently—an alignment that often supports absorption at key levels. Several desks framed the prior four-session, ~$1.3 billion outflow burst as flipping one of 2025’s strongest tailwinds into a temporary headwind. With the dollar firming and policy uncertainty elevated, Tuesday’s dip below $100,000 underscored fragility. The $100,000 mark is now the line many are trading against, with a stabilization in ETF creations seen as the fastest way to reset tone.

Traders are split on the near-term path. Some argue that as aggressive sellers get cleared out, the market becomes incrementally attractive, inviting attempts to buy what could be the final thrust of the cycle. Others caution that one positive day does not define a trend; modest volumes and a still-negative weekly average suggest a technical bounce rather than a sustained demand regime.

Prediction markets echo that hesitation. On Myriad, users assign about a 26% probability that Bitcoin sets another all-time high before year-end. Disclosure: Myriad is owned by Dastan, which also owns this outlet.

The strategic question is whether $100,000 can hold as the clearing price where ETF flows and on-chain behavior reinforce each other. ETF mechanics are reflexive: when price is under pressure, authorized participants slow creations and lean into redemptions; when price stabilizes, creations restart, liquidity improves, and allocators regain confidence. Whales adding into stress can create the initial cushion, but it is sustained, broad-based creations—across IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB—that typically confirm a durable floor.

What I’m watching next: - Consecutive sessions of net inflows and positive 5-day flow momentum - Breadth across issuers (not just one fund driving prints) - Options skew normalizing as downside hedging demand fades - Price acceptance above $100,000 with spot and futures basis in sync

Thursday’s $239.9 million is an encouraging signal, not a verdict. If flows stay constructive and $100,000 acts as support, reflexivity can work for bulls again. If macro headwinds persist, the market will ask for lower prices or cheaper optionality before capital steps back in size.