Bitcoin Hits 21-Month Low as Prediction Markets Favor $55K and $1.5K; STRC Becomes the Pressure Point

Traders are positioning for more downside as Bitcoin briefly printed a 21-month low early Thursday and Ethereum slid in tandem. The immediate driver isn’t on-chain stress or ETF outflows—it’s a reflexive equity dynamic. Strategy’s preferred equity, STRC, has become the market’s fulcrum, with slippage there feeding a narrative of potential forced Bitcoin sales and dragging crypto beta lower.

On Myriad, a prediction market platform run by Dastan, participants strongly skew toward lower near-term levels: - 77% odds Bitcoin touches $55,000 before rallying to $80,000 - 88% odds Ethereum hits $1,500 before rebounding to $3,000

That bearish tilt has strengthened meaningfully; the probability BTC tags $55,000 first has climbed 44% over the last month. Spot reflects the shift: Bitcoin trades near $59,511, down roughly 1% on the day and 23% over the month, after nearly breaching $58,000—its lowest since 2024. Ethereum sits around $1,576, off 2.6% in 24 hours and more than 25% over 30 days, now just 5.2% above Myriad’s $1,500 resolution level.

The equity tape is amplifying the move. Shares of Strategy (MSTR), often treated as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin’s treasury trade, fell nearly 7% intraday Thursday to around $88 and are down almost 45% over the past month. STRC—designed to trade near a $100 par—recently changed hands near $77, off 22% in a month, and set a new low at $73.62 after the open.

Here’s the crux: when a preferred security meant to sit close to par trades deeply below it, investors infer stress on dividend coverage and liquidity. That discount becomes a psychological anchor—each tick lower implies tighter cash optionality, increasing the perceived probability of balance sheet actions that could include Bitcoin sales. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has argued that, in the short run, STRC price action is effectively steering BTC sentiment; macro jitters around inflation and potential rate hikes aren’t helping, but the equity slide is what traders are watching. Until Strategy communicates a credible plan to stabilize the preferred—likely by fortifying cash to meet obligations—this loop may persist.

This is classic reflexivity in a crypto-adjacent structure. A treasury-heavy balance sheet magnifies feedback: 1) STRC trades off par, signaling funding strain. 2) Equity investors price a higher chance of defensive moves. 3) Crypto traders preemptively sell, pushing BTC lower. 4) Lower BTC worsens optics for the equity complex, reinforcing the loop.

There are ways to break it. Management clarity on liquidity runway and dividend policy can reset expectations. Even modest steps—front-foot cash raises, hedging, or explicit guardrails against forced Bitcoin disposals—often disrupt the doom loop by moving the conversation from “if” to “how” and “when.”

Ethereum is catching stray fire. Hougan has characterized ETH as collateral damage in this episode—consistent with how cross-asset de-risking tends to compress dispersion when conviction falters. With ETH hovering near $1,576, proximity to a round $1,500 target on prediction markets can itself become a magnet as systematic flows lean short into weakness.

Zooming out, tail-risk pricing is firming on longer-dated contracts. Kalshi markets imply a 36% chance that Bitcoin trades below $40,000 at some point in 2026 and a 34% chance that ETH dips beneath $1,000. Those odds coexist with crypto’s structural volatility and deep drawdowns: BTC sits nearly 53% below its $126,080 peak from last October, while ETH is over 68% off its $4,946 high from last August.

Near term, the path of least resistance likely runs through the equity complex. If STRC stabilizes closer to par and MSTR bounces, crypto could catch relief even without a macro catalyst. If not, the market may continue to probe the levels prediction traders are leaning into—$55,000 on BTC and $1,500 on ETH—as positioning and psychology do the heavy lifting.