Bitcoin clears $106K as shutdown deal firms; Ethereum tops $3.6K while XRP and Solana gain

Bitcoin snapped higher above $106,000 for the first time in nearly a week as Washington signaled an imminent end to the 40-day U.S. government shutdown—the longest on record. According to CoinGecko, BTC was recently up more than 4%. Ethereum advanced over 7% to trade above $3,600, while XRP and Solana added roughly 6% apiece.

The move is a classic relief repricing. Policy uncertainty had been a persistent headwind over the past month, with Bitcoin slipping below $100,000 on multiple occasions—the first such breaks since early August. Even with today’s pop, BTC remains more than 15% below its early-October peak above $126,000, and Ethereum has surrendered even more ground over the same window as traders leaned away from higher-beta exposure.

Flows tell the story of that caution. Across the last eight trading sessions, the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs shed more than $2.1 billion in assets, while the nine Ethereum funds saw $579 million in net outflows. Crypto equities echoed the stress: exchange giant Coinbase slid more than 9% last week and a leading Bitcoin-treasury stock fell over 8%.

Why focus on this: whether this bounce can persist hinges less on headlines and more on how quickly the market de-pressurizes the risk premium embedded during the standoff. When policy risk rises, allocators often hoard cash, unwind basis trades, and slash gross exposure. That forces ETF redemptions and pushes liquidity to the sidelines. If a shutdown resolution credibly removes that tail risk, the feedback loop can reverse—funding normalizes, market makers add balance-sheet, and passive flows stabilize. Relief rallies that stick typically show the following tells within days:

- ETF flow inflection: outflows slow materially or flip flat-to-positive. - Derivatives reset: futures basis and funding rates revert toward neutral without overcrowded longs. - Equity confirmation: crypto-exposed stocks catch a bid alongside spot, indicating broader risk appetite. - Liquidity breadth: depth on major exchanges improves and slippage compresses on larger clips.

On the policy front, multiple reports indicated Senate Democrats and Republicans reached a deal to reopen the government. The agreement followed a group of moderates signaling support for procedural votes to fund operations. Democrats had pushed to extend health subsidies that would lower insurance costs, but the duration of the shutdown appeared to take priority. In the prediction markets, users on Myriad raised the implied probability of the government reopening before November 15 to above 90%, up from about 37% over the last 24 hours—precisely the kind of rapid probability repricing risk assets react to.

Technically, $106,000 is more sentiment than structure, but clearing it after repeated dips below $100,000 dents the bear narrative. Still, the market’s message has been consistent: without a turn in ETF flows and a calmer macro tape, rallies risk fading into supply from sidelined sellers. Ethereum’s bounce above $3,600 is encouraging, yet its recent underperformance suggests investors are still selective with beta until policy and liquidity visibility improve.

For now, traders will watch whether the shutdown deal translates into flow stabilization. If it does, today’s move reads as the first leg of risk-premium compression rather than just headline-chasing. If not, it’s another sharp rally in a market that remains data-dependent and flow-driven.